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That makes Best Adapted Screenplay a tougher nut to crack now, as Barbie will be in with Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and a potential dark horse (American Fiction?) as the five likely nominees. Meanwhile, The Holdovers wins Best Original Screenplay pretty easily now.

The Golden Globes are going on, even though I'm sure everyone is really watching Sunday Night Football, and it's pretty much established the HFPA only watched four movies this year. Meanwhile, how did Anatomy of a Fall win Best Screenplay?

In other news, Oppenheimer should win the AARP Best Movie from Grownups Award.

SAG Nominations:
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture:
Barbie
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
John Wick: Chapter 4
Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

Biggest surprises here for me was the complete absence of May December and Past Lives, Dafoe getting in over Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things and The Color Purple beating out Poor Things for an ensemble nom. Also, if anyone ends up correctly predicting the Best Supporting Actress field for the Oscars, they should be given their own award for Predictor of the Year.

I do not get the praise for Emily Blunt's performance in Oppenheimer. I thought she and Florence Pugh were rather interchangeable and might as well been the same character.

As for the award itself, Randolph has that Oscar locked up.

On the ensemble list, I think May December and Past Lives were made with a lot of non-SAG actors, which might explain their snubs.

Meanwhile with awards in general, I'm amazed how it feels like Milo Machado Graner's performance as the son in Anatomy of a Fall hasn't been talked about at all. It's the kind of performance voters love and if it were in English rather than French, he would probably be the favorite to win the Oscar for Supporting Actor.

DGA Nominations:

Feature Film:
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Documentary Features:
Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, Bobi Wine: The People's President
Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol
Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia
Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
D. Smith, Kokomo City

First-Time Features:
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Manuela Martelli, Chile '76
Noora Naisari, Shayda
A.V Rockwell, A Thousand and One
Celine Song, Past Lives

I didn't realize Beyond Utopia was that good. I just figured it was pro-Evangelical propaganda that fit Fathom Events' mission statement.

Edit: turns out the trailer Fathom cut gave it a different tone than what the film really is.

Critics' Choice Winners:
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Best Actress: Emma Stone, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Best Supporting Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Young Actor/Actress: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Best Acting Ensemble: Oppenheimer
Best Original Screenplay: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Best Adapted Screenplay: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Foreign Language Film: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Score: Ludwig Goransson, Oppenheimer
Best Original Song: "I'm Just Ken", Barbie
Best Cinematography: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Best Editing: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Best Costume Design: Barbie
Best Production Design: Barbie
Best Hair and Makeup: Barbie
Best Visual Effects: Oppenheimer
Best Comedy: Barbie

Man, France really fucked up by not submitting Anatomy of a Fall for Best International Feature.

When's the last time a movie won Best Picture at the Oscars without winning a Screenplay Oscar? That could be the biggest handicap of it winning Best Picture (that and not every AMPAS voter is a Nolanbro that solely watches what people on the Internet like).

Edit: it was Nomadland. Other Best Picture winners that didn't win a Screenplay Oscar include The Shape of Water (lost to Get Out), The Artist (lost to Midnight in Paris), Million Dollar Baby (lost to Sideways), Chicago (lost to The Pianist), Gladiator (lost to Almost Famous), and Titanic (not even nominated).

transformers2 wrote: ↑

January 15th, 2024, 3:10 pm

Man, France really fucked up by not submitting Anatomy of a Fall for Best International Feature.

Damn right. I don't know what went through the mind of the selecting comittee. What a mistake. France hasnt won in 30 years, and it was the best opportunity to finally win again.

Presumably they felt it was a contender for Best Picture, and I don't think you can be nominated for both categories. There's still a chance it will get nominated, though no chance it will beat Oppenheimer. If they just went for International Feature they would have won easily. Imbéciles

If Anatomy of a Fall were in English, it would not be getting the awards it's been getting. You have the movie pretty much figured out a third of the way in and Neon's "did she do it" campaign does nothing to change the outcome. Meanwhile, you can have a movie nominated for both Best Picture and Best International Feature Film (Drive My Car and All Quiet on the Western Front were nominated in both categories). This isn't the Golden Globes and their whole refusal to nominate animated features for Best Picture when they would have won in a number of years.

As for Oppenheimer being the de-facto Oscar winner, it's not often a movie wins Best Picture without winning a Screenplay Oscar. In addition, the Best Picture balloting is different for AMPAS than other voters. As a result, it could potentially lead to a split between Oppenheimer and other similar downbeat movies in the race and an upset emerges (see Moonlight vs. La La Land and CODA vs. The Power of the Dog).

numbersix wrote: ↑

January 16th, 2024, 12:12 pm

Presumably they felt it was a contender for Best Picture, and I don't think you can be nominated for both categories.

4 of the last 5 Best International Feature Winners (Roma, Parasite, Drive My Car, All Quiet on the Western Front) were also up for Best Picture. Hell, Parasite won both!

Well I am wrong about that! Now I really don't understand France's decision.

As for Boosch's comments, the film is not about the whodunnit aspect (NEON made a mistake driving marketing that way), that's just the guise it takes initially to tell a more domestic story about the complexity of relationships. That's what makes the film work, even if it doesn't exactly feel very unique.

You are, however, correct in that there could be an Oscar upset, but I'm just not sure which film has a shot of beating it. Poor Things is way too weird, The Holdover too conventional, Barbie too "fun", Killers of the Flower Moon is even more downbeat, and films like Anatomy, Zone of Interest, American Fiction, Past Lives, all feel too small and haven't been winning that many awards.

Anatomy of a Fall definitely has a good shot at a Best Picture nomination

Is anyone doing Sundance At Home this year? Any suggestions on screenings to pick? Sucks that the biggest premieres are not online this year.

numbersix wrote: ↑

January 16th, 2024, 4:08 pm

You are, however, correct in that there could be an Oscar upset, but I'm just not sure which film has a shot of beating it. Poor Things is way too weird, The Holdover too conventional, Barbie too "fun", Killers of the Flower Moon is even more downbeat, and films like Anatomy, Zone of Interest, American Fiction, Past Lives, all feel too small and haven't been winning that many awards.

Remember, no one had CODA winning Best Picture until the SAG Awards. It was all about The Power of the Dog vs. Dune until a few weeks before the ceremony.

One thing we must remember is that AMPAS is more diverse and larger than nearly all voting blocs that hand out film awards. Oppenheimer is going to poll well with older voters but not everyone at AMPAS is an older voter or puts Nolan above all. Also, I believe AMPAS voters have far more access to movies than say, the HFPA or the National Board of Review (the latter of which I'm convinced doesn't even watch half the movies they award). As a result, we always see a few surprise nominees every year.